Loose Controls
Wednesday, August 08, 2012
The US Dept. of Census and the Dept.
of HUD release data every month on the previous months statistical
trends regarding building permits, housing starts and housing completions.
Since I work in this industry, this has always been an
indicator of how well MY economy is doing and how well it is likely to do in
the near future.
As you know, if you live in the US, the economical recession
we have been going through deepened in 2011 rather than repairing. Data
released this year show different trends though, trends that I might whisper,
“It looks good…” without getting too exited. I am though, and here’s why:
“Privately –owned housing units authorized by building
permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 755k. This is 3.7%(+/- 1.0%) below the revised May
rate of 784k but is 19.3 %(+/_1.8%)
above June 2011 estimates.
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 760k, This us 6.9%(+/- 13.3%)* above the revised May estimate of
711k and is 23.6%( +/- 16.8%) above
the June 2011 rate.
Privately-owned housing completions in June were at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622k. this is 2.6%, (+/- 12.5%) above the
revised May estimate of 606k and is 7.2%
(+/- 13.2%) above the June 2011 rate of
580k.
The statistics in this release are estimated from sample
surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error
including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and
undercoverage. On average, the
preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing
starts and housing completions are revised about three percent or less.
The Data Looks Good
Building permits requested in June were 4% less than the previous month but almost 20% higher
than a year ago. Many more houses are being built now. With that, many more
investors are putting their money down on the table instead of holding on to it
in fear. Those who run business know that putting your money out there is the
only way to reap investment profits, and there’s always risk involved. Now that
a larger number of investors are getting back into the fray, it beckons more to
join in which, when they do join in, will induce even more to dive back in.
The actual housing starts, those homes actually begun rose
from May to June this year at a good rate.
Those homes actually completed rose also from May to June (2.6%) and
from June 2011 (7.2%)
Economy bouncing back?
All of this bodes well for the economy. In short, and I’m no
expert, but these indicators are compiled and looked at by the government to
find out how well the economy is really doing. After being told the economy is
“in recovery”, it’s nice to finally see the figures backing up the “facts”.
Finally!
I am hoping this years’ earnings will expunge the horrible
stretch I’ve had since 2007 when the economy started turning bad and housing and home sales went into the tank.
(with fingers crossed…)
-katykarter
¶ 9:05 AM 0 comments 
